http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=4/11/2007§ion_id=5&newsid=57965&spcl=no
The Financial Express, Bangladesh
4/11/2007
THE energy sector in the country, presently, is a source of worry for short, medium and long term planning. The state of the sector is causing negative impacts both at the macro and micro levels of the economy. The macro level concerns are mainly due to the inseparable vital links between economic growth and investments on the one hand and the energy situation on the other. The micro level anxieties are from existing entrepreneurs finding it hard to cope with dwindled energy supply and the disincentives that it has created for further investments by them in different fields.
It is imperative to address the overall energy situation under a carefully considered master plan that would address at the fastest all aspects of development of energy sources. Once it is firmed up and clear signals are received about its early implementation, the same will raise investors' confidence and accelerate the growth momentum in the economy. Essentially, such a comprehensive plan for the energy sector must be an 'integrated' one forging relationships between developmental activities of the energy sector's sub-sectors to lead cumulatively to a desired outcome.
For example, the augmentation of power generation is the biggest need in the power sub-sector. But this task must not be conceived of and attempted in isolation. Power plants that produce power in Bangladesh are predominantly gas based. For a long time, the inability to supply fuel to the gas-fed power plants adequately resulted in their installed capacities not being fully used. The conditions in this respect have improved somewhat -- very recently -- after the going into operation of a major gas field operated by a foreign company.
But this is still piecemeal strategy. There will have to be comprehensive plans to know what the effective demand for electricity is in the country and what would be that demand in subsequent years. More significantly, it has to be similarly known how much of that power would be generated by using gas. And then it would be very important to take stock of whether this amount of additional gas would be produced in the coming years in tandem with installation of capacities to produce power from gas. In that case, matching investments will have to be made in the gas sub-sector in exploration and production activities to find new deposits of gas and getting it ready for supply to the power plants. In sum, there will have to be synthesis in the operations of the two major sub-sectors in the energy sector--power and gas -- so that the main goal of energy availability for the users can be smoothly and progressively met.
The integrated policies in the energy sector must also examine and clearly prepare a vision and guideline for the development of energy sources in the other sub-sectors such as coal, non-conventional power from wind, sun's rays and waves, nuclear power, biofuel, etc. Steps to be taken for the development of all of these energy sources should also be an integral part of the integrated plan for the development of the energy sector as a whole. For instance, plans should provide clear projections of the requirements of energy to be met from the non-conventional sources so that the same do not conflict with planning objectives in the areas of the conventional sources of energy.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Pakistan has Potential to Solve Energy Problems: USAID
http://www.energybangla.com/article_det.asp?aId=501
Pakistan has Potential to Solve Energy Problems: USAID [ Print ]
South Asia EB Report, published 15/4/2007
Pakistan has many trained energy professionals and significant financial resources to develop its energy sector, according to United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Senior Energy Adviser, Gordon W. Weynand.
Gordon W. Weynand, who recently visited Pakistan to study prospects for further USAID support for the country’s energy sector, expressed his satisfaction over the energy prospects of Pakistan.
“One of my strongest impressions from Pakistan is that although there are many complex energy challenges, the people in the government of Pakistan seem to have strong potential to solve those problems and a ready willingness to try and use new approaches,” he said at the conclusion of his visit, says a statement of USAID.
During his two-week stay, Weynand visited Lahore, Karachi, Sialkot and Islamabad along with USAID Pakistan’s Economic Growth Team.
“USAID is exploring the possibility of including energy sector development in its future economic growth strategy,” said Amy Meyer, the Director for USAID Pakistan’s Economic Growth Office.
“USAID is particularly interested in exploring this area where government and private sector actors are willing to partner with USAID in financing this assistance.”
Since its start in 2004, USAID Pakistan’s Economic Growth program- mainly focusing on business development initiatives, financial services, and agriculture and science & technology development-has also included interventions in the country’s energy sector.
The US-Pakistan Science and Technology Partnership Program is funding a project on “Improving the Lifestyle of Villagers in Remote Areas of Federal Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan Using Renewable Energy” with the aim to provide solar water pumping capabilities for five villages in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwestern Pakistan.
These USAID efforts in the energy sector also include the South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy (SARI/Energy), an eight-country program promoting energy security across Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
SARI/Energy is completing both wind and solar maps of Pakistan and has also assisted Pakistan in the development of a strategic and business operating plan for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Energy Center (SENTER) that was set up in Islamabad in December 2006.
APP.
Pakistan has Potential to Solve Energy Problems: USAID [ Print ]
South Asia EB Report, published 15/4/2007
Pakistan has many trained energy professionals and significant financial resources to develop its energy sector, according to United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Senior Energy Adviser, Gordon W. Weynand.
Gordon W. Weynand, who recently visited Pakistan to study prospects for further USAID support for the country’s energy sector, expressed his satisfaction over the energy prospects of Pakistan.
“One of my strongest impressions from Pakistan is that although there are many complex energy challenges, the people in the government of Pakistan seem to have strong potential to solve those problems and a ready willingness to try and use new approaches,” he said at the conclusion of his visit, says a statement of USAID.
During his two-week stay, Weynand visited Lahore, Karachi, Sialkot and Islamabad along with USAID Pakistan’s Economic Growth Team.
“USAID is exploring the possibility of including energy sector development in its future economic growth strategy,” said Amy Meyer, the Director for USAID Pakistan’s Economic Growth Office.
“USAID is particularly interested in exploring this area where government and private sector actors are willing to partner with USAID in financing this assistance.”
Since its start in 2004, USAID Pakistan’s Economic Growth program- mainly focusing on business development initiatives, financial services, and agriculture and science & technology development-has also included interventions in the country’s energy sector.
The US-Pakistan Science and Technology Partnership Program is funding a project on “Improving the Lifestyle of Villagers in Remote Areas of Federal Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan Using Renewable Energy” with the aim to provide solar water pumping capabilities for five villages in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwestern Pakistan.
These USAID efforts in the energy sector also include the South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy (SARI/Energy), an eight-country program promoting energy security across Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
SARI/Energy is completing both wind and solar maps of Pakistan and has also assisted Pakistan in the development of a strategic and business operating plan for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Energy Center (SENTER) that was set up in Islamabad in December 2006.
APP.
Nepal-India moving forward on power trade
http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=365640&ssid=50&sid=BUS
Kathmandu, April 13: Nepal has evinced interest in working with Indian power companies to generate hydropower for both internal consumption and export purposes.
A team of Power Trading Corporation of India Ltd (PTC), which met Nepalese officials here today, said it was very much hopeful that a breakthrough will be made in the area of power trade between the two neighbours in near future.
"The talks were very much fruitful and they are quite enthusiastic to work with the Indian power companies to generate hydropower not only for internal consumption but also for export purposes," PTC'S director S K Dubey said.
India is a growing economy with a big market for hydropower, he pointed out.
Nepal, currently facing a deficit of power, needs to purchase 50 to 100 MW power to fulfill its short-term demand.
However, India can only supply 10 to 15 MW power to it due to the availability of limited power transmission lines, Dubey said.
According Nepalese officials, the country would be in a position to export power to India after 5-6 years as it would be able to meet its domestic demands by then.
Currently, PTC is working for the construction of 750 MW West Seti hydropower project in far-western Nepal, for which Chinese banks have shown interest for investment.
India has agreed to purchase 4.95 cents per KW power from the project.
However, investors have to finalise the deal before the construction of the project can actually begin.
Bureau Report
Kathmandu, April 13: Nepal has evinced interest in working with Indian power companies to generate hydropower for both internal consumption and export purposes.
A team of Power Trading Corporation of India Ltd (PTC), which met Nepalese officials here today, said it was very much hopeful that a breakthrough will be made in the area of power trade between the two neighbours in near future.
"The talks were very much fruitful and they are quite enthusiastic to work with the Indian power companies to generate hydropower not only for internal consumption but also for export purposes," PTC'S director S K Dubey said.
India is a growing economy with a big market for hydropower, he pointed out.
Nepal, currently facing a deficit of power, needs to purchase 50 to 100 MW power to fulfill its short-term demand.
However, India can only supply 10 to 15 MW power to it due to the availability of limited power transmission lines, Dubey said.
According Nepalese officials, the country would be in a position to export power to India after 5-6 years as it would be able to meet its domestic demands by then.
Currently, PTC is working for the construction of 750 MW West Seti hydropower project in far-western Nepal, for which Chinese banks have shown interest for investment.
India has agreed to purchase 4.95 cents per KW power from the project.
However, investors have to finalise the deal before the construction of the project can actually begin.
Bureau Report
IPCC Report: Millions At Risk Of Hunger And Water Stress In Asia Unless Global Greenhouse Emissions Cut
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070410134724.htm
Science Daily — Food and water shortages are likely to increase in Asia unless action is taken to curb the rise in greenhouse gases according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Increasing temperatures and extreme weather patterns are already taking their toll on crop yields which are declining in many parts of the Continent.
Future climate change is expected to put close to 50 million extra people at risk of hunger by 2020 rising to an additional 132 million and 266 million by 2050 and 2080 respectively, says the report of IPCC Working Group II.
Indeed temperatures could rise by up to five degrees C by 2080 unless emissions are decisively reduced, the report adds. It suggests that a 2°C increase in mean air temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yields by 5-12% in China and under one scenario net cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to decline by 4 to 10% by the end of this century. In Bangladesh, production of rice may fall by just under ten per cent and wheat by a third by the year 2050.
Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) which is a co-founder of the IPCC, said: “Unchecked climate change will be an environmental and economic catastrophe but above all it will be a human tragedy. Seven of the world’s most populous countries are located in Asia and future population growth over the next 50 years is projected to increase India, Pakistan and Bangladesh’s populations by 570 million, 200 million and 130 million respectively”.
“It is absolutely vital that international action is taken now to avoid dangerous climate change. Otherwise the consequences for food and water security in Asia, as for many other parts of the world are too alarming to contemplate,” he added.
“Action however cannot be confined to curbing greenhouse gases. Some level of climate change is inevitable as a result of pollution already in the atmosphere. Therefore action is also needed at the national level to mainstream ‘climate proofing’ into all areas of economic life so that countries and communities in the region have a chance to adapt and thus a chance to avoid some of the more extreme impacts,” said Mr Steiner.
Water
Water stress is cited as one of the most pressing environmental problem facing the region, particularly in South and Southeast Asia where the number of people living under water stress is expected to increase substantially. In India, “gross per capita water availability” will decline from around 1,820 cubic metres a year to as low as around 1,140 cubic metres a year in 2050.
“Freshwater availability in Central, South and East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins such as Changjiang is likely to decrease due to climate change, along with population growth and rising standard of living, which could adversely affect more than a billion people in Asia by the 2050s,” the report stated.
Meanwhile, some regions are likely to see more frequent and heavier rainfall including western China, the Changjiang Valley and the southeastern coast of China, the Arabian Peninsula, Bangladesh and along the western coasts of the Philippines. These could lead to severe flooding and increased risks from landslides and mud flows.
Himalayan glaciers are receding faster than in any other part of the world. Half a billion people in the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush region and a quarter billion downstream who rely on glacial melt waters could be seriously affected.
Glaciers in these areas could, at current rates of global warming, disappear altogether by 2035, if not sooner.
The current trends in glacial melt suggest that the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers that criss-cross the northern Indian plain may become seasonal rivers in the near future as a consequence of climate change with important ramifications for poverty and the economies in the region.
Sea Levels
Coastal populations are also vulnerable to sea level rise. The current level of sea level rise in coastal areas of Asia is reported to be between 1 to 3 mm annually, slightly higher than the global average.
“Projected sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people living in the low lying areas of South, Southeast and East Asia such as in Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and China. Even under the most conservative scenario, sea level will be about 40 cm higher than today by the end of 21st century and this is projected to increase the annual number of people flooded in coastal population from 13 million to 94 million,” the report states.
Almost 60% of this increase will occur in South Asia (along coasts from Pakistan, through India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to Burma), while about 20% will occur in Southeast Asia specifically from Thailand to Vietnam including Indonesia and the Philippines.
This impact could be more pronounced in megacities located in megadeltas such as in Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tianjin, where natural ground subsidence is enhanced by human activities.
Biodiversity
Nearly half of Asia’s biodiversity is at risk because of climate change.
“Climate change is likely to affect forest expansion and migration, and exacerbate threats to biodiversity resulting from land use/cover change and population pressure in most of Asia. Marine and coastal ecosystems in Asia are likely to be affected by sea level rise and temperature increases,” the report added.
Food insecurity and loss of livelihood are likely to be further exacerbated by the loss of cultivated land and nursery areas for fisheries by inundation and coastal erosion in low-lying areas of tropical Asia.
Health
Human health will also be adversely affected. Rising temperatures and rainfall variability had led to more climate-induced diseases and heat stress in Central, East, South and Southeast Asia.
Increases in illness and mortality resulting from diarrhoeal disease are expected in South and Southeast Asia. Warmer temperatures in coastal waters would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.
“Multiple stresses in Asia will be compounded further due to climate change. It is likely that climate change will impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development,” the report said.
Adaptation
While development to a large extent is responsible for much of the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere that drives climate change, development can also greatly contribute to reducing vulnerability to climate change and enhancing the adaptive capacity of vulnerable sectors. The report calls for the mainstreaming of sustainable development policies and including climate proofing concept in national development initiatives.
It suggests improvements in public food distribution, disaster preparedness and management, and health care systems to enhance social capital and reduce the vulnerability of developing countries of Asia to climate change.
Adaptation measures to deal with sea-level rise, potentially more intense cyclones and threats to ecosystems and biodiversity are also highly recommended.
Management options, such as better stock management and more integrated agro-ecosystems could likely improve land conditions and reduce pressures arising from climate change, the report added.
Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by United Nations Environment Programme.
Science Daily — Food and water shortages are likely to increase in Asia unless action is taken to curb the rise in greenhouse gases according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Increasing temperatures and extreme weather patterns are already taking their toll on crop yields which are declining in many parts of the Continent.
Future climate change is expected to put close to 50 million extra people at risk of hunger by 2020 rising to an additional 132 million and 266 million by 2050 and 2080 respectively, says the report of IPCC Working Group II.
Indeed temperatures could rise by up to five degrees C by 2080 unless emissions are decisively reduced, the report adds. It suggests that a 2°C increase in mean air temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yields by 5-12% in China and under one scenario net cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to decline by 4 to 10% by the end of this century. In Bangladesh, production of rice may fall by just under ten per cent and wheat by a third by the year 2050.
Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) which is a co-founder of the IPCC, said: “Unchecked climate change will be an environmental and economic catastrophe but above all it will be a human tragedy. Seven of the world’s most populous countries are located in Asia and future population growth over the next 50 years is projected to increase India, Pakistan and Bangladesh’s populations by 570 million, 200 million and 130 million respectively”.
“It is absolutely vital that international action is taken now to avoid dangerous climate change. Otherwise the consequences for food and water security in Asia, as for many other parts of the world are too alarming to contemplate,” he added.
“Action however cannot be confined to curbing greenhouse gases. Some level of climate change is inevitable as a result of pollution already in the atmosphere. Therefore action is also needed at the national level to mainstream ‘climate proofing’ into all areas of economic life so that countries and communities in the region have a chance to adapt and thus a chance to avoid some of the more extreme impacts,” said Mr Steiner.
Water
Water stress is cited as one of the most pressing environmental problem facing the region, particularly in South and Southeast Asia where the number of people living under water stress is expected to increase substantially. In India, “gross per capita water availability” will decline from around 1,820 cubic metres a year to as low as around 1,140 cubic metres a year in 2050.
“Freshwater availability in Central, South and East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins such as Changjiang is likely to decrease due to climate change, along with population growth and rising standard of living, which could adversely affect more than a billion people in Asia by the 2050s,” the report stated.
Meanwhile, some regions are likely to see more frequent and heavier rainfall including western China, the Changjiang Valley and the southeastern coast of China, the Arabian Peninsula, Bangladesh and along the western coasts of the Philippines. These could lead to severe flooding and increased risks from landslides and mud flows.
Himalayan glaciers are receding faster than in any other part of the world. Half a billion people in the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush region and a quarter billion downstream who rely on glacial melt waters could be seriously affected.
Glaciers in these areas could, at current rates of global warming, disappear altogether by 2035, if not sooner.
The current trends in glacial melt suggest that the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers that criss-cross the northern Indian plain may become seasonal rivers in the near future as a consequence of climate change with important ramifications for poverty and the economies in the region.
Sea Levels
Coastal populations are also vulnerable to sea level rise. The current level of sea level rise in coastal areas of Asia is reported to be between 1 to 3 mm annually, slightly higher than the global average.
“Projected sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people living in the low lying areas of South, Southeast and East Asia such as in Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and China. Even under the most conservative scenario, sea level will be about 40 cm higher than today by the end of 21st century and this is projected to increase the annual number of people flooded in coastal population from 13 million to 94 million,” the report states.
Almost 60% of this increase will occur in South Asia (along coasts from Pakistan, through India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to Burma), while about 20% will occur in Southeast Asia specifically from Thailand to Vietnam including Indonesia and the Philippines.
This impact could be more pronounced in megacities located in megadeltas such as in Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tianjin, where natural ground subsidence is enhanced by human activities.
Biodiversity
Nearly half of Asia’s biodiversity is at risk because of climate change.
“Climate change is likely to affect forest expansion and migration, and exacerbate threats to biodiversity resulting from land use/cover change and population pressure in most of Asia. Marine and coastal ecosystems in Asia are likely to be affected by sea level rise and temperature increases,” the report added.
Food insecurity and loss of livelihood are likely to be further exacerbated by the loss of cultivated land and nursery areas for fisheries by inundation and coastal erosion in low-lying areas of tropical Asia.
Health
Human health will also be adversely affected. Rising temperatures and rainfall variability had led to more climate-induced diseases and heat stress in Central, East, South and Southeast Asia.
Increases in illness and mortality resulting from diarrhoeal disease are expected in South and Southeast Asia. Warmer temperatures in coastal waters would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.
“Multiple stresses in Asia will be compounded further due to climate change. It is likely that climate change will impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development,” the report said.
Adaptation
While development to a large extent is responsible for much of the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere that drives climate change, development can also greatly contribute to reducing vulnerability to climate change and enhancing the adaptive capacity of vulnerable sectors. The report calls for the mainstreaming of sustainable development policies and including climate proofing concept in national development initiatives.
It suggests improvements in public food distribution, disaster preparedness and management, and health care systems to enhance social capital and reduce the vulnerability of developing countries of Asia to climate change.
Adaptation measures to deal with sea-level rise, potentially more intense cyclones and threats to ecosystems and biodiversity are also highly recommended.
Management options, such as better stock management and more integrated agro-ecosystems could likely improve land conditions and reduce pressures arising from climate change, the report added.
Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by United Nations Environment Programme.
One billion people in Asia face water shortages from warming
Friday 06 April 2007 20:25
http://jurnalo.com/jurnalo/storyPage.do?story_id=27913
Asia faces drastic flooding, water shortages, hunger risks and disease problems over the current century at the present rate of global warming, according to a report released Friday in Brussels.Australia and New Zealand however face fewer challenges to their ecosystems and have a higher capacity to adapt to the changes using their greater scientific and technical abilities compared to the rest of the region.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - the work of more than 2,000 scientists over six years - earlier this year projected the Earth's average temperature would rise by 1. 1 to 6. 4 degrees Celsius given current levels of greenhouse-gas emissions.
Friday's report projected the consequences of that change, including the global loss of 20 to 30 per cent of known species; water shortages for at least one-sixth of the world's people by century's end; and an increase of many millions of people each year affected by flooding from now through to the 2080s.
Global economic losses could range from 1 to 5 per cent of the world's gross domestic product if temperatures climb 4 degrees Celsius during this century, the report projected.
By the 2050s, more than 1 billion people living in the large river basins of Central, South, East and South-East Asia are projected to be affected by dwindling availability of fresh water - not only because of climate change but also due to "population growth and increasing demands from higher standards of living," the report said.
The Himalayas for example are expected to experience increased flooding and rock avalanches from glacier melt over the next two or three decades, followed by lower fresh water supplies as the glaciers recede, the report said.
Rising sea levels are expected to flood coastal areas and heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, and climate change is expected to interfere with sustainable development of the rapidly urbanizing region.
East and South-East Asia could enjoy up to 20 per cent greater crop yields, while neighbours in Central and South Asia would experience the opposite - up to 30-per-cent crop declines. The end balance would be negative, the IPCC said, and would increase the likelihood of hunger.
Disease and mortality are projected to increase from diarrhoeal illness "associated with floods and droughts" in East, South and South-East Asia, while cholera could be worsened from rising coastal water temperatures in South Asia.
Australia's Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics are facing "significant loss of biodiversity" by 2020, the report said. The same is true for its Kakadu wetlands, an important refuge for many Australian waterbirds and the wintering ground for about 30 species of migratory birds like the little curlew that breed during the northern summer in Siberia, China and Japan.
Agricultural and forestry production was projected to drop by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand, the report said. New Zealand's higher altitude regions however could benefit initially from a longer growing season and less frost.
The IPCC report is the product of not only scientific input but also approval by 130 governments. dpa pr cc
http://jurnalo.com/jurnalo/storyPage.do?story_id=27913
Asia faces drastic flooding, water shortages, hunger risks and disease problems over the current century at the present rate of global warming, according to a report released Friday in Brussels.Australia and New Zealand however face fewer challenges to their ecosystems and have a higher capacity to adapt to the changes using their greater scientific and technical abilities compared to the rest of the region.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - the work of more than 2,000 scientists over six years - earlier this year projected the Earth's average temperature would rise by 1. 1 to 6. 4 degrees Celsius given current levels of greenhouse-gas emissions.
Friday's report projected the consequences of that change, including the global loss of 20 to 30 per cent of known species; water shortages for at least one-sixth of the world's people by century's end; and an increase of many millions of people each year affected by flooding from now through to the 2080s.
Global economic losses could range from 1 to 5 per cent of the world's gross domestic product if temperatures climb 4 degrees Celsius during this century, the report projected.
By the 2050s, more than 1 billion people living in the large river basins of Central, South, East and South-East Asia are projected to be affected by dwindling availability of fresh water - not only because of climate change but also due to "population growth and increasing demands from higher standards of living," the report said.
The Himalayas for example are expected to experience increased flooding and rock avalanches from glacier melt over the next two or three decades, followed by lower fresh water supplies as the glaciers recede, the report said.
Rising sea levels are expected to flood coastal areas and heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, and climate change is expected to interfere with sustainable development of the rapidly urbanizing region.
East and South-East Asia could enjoy up to 20 per cent greater crop yields, while neighbours in Central and South Asia would experience the opposite - up to 30-per-cent crop declines. The end balance would be negative, the IPCC said, and would increase the likelihood of hunger.
Disease and mortality are projected to increase from diarrhoeal illness "associated with floods and droughts" in East, South and South-East Asia, while cholera could be worsened from rising coastal water temperatures in South Asia.
Australia's Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics are facing "significant loss of biodiversity" by 2020, the report said. The same is true for its Kakadu wetlands, an important refuge for many Australian waterbirds and the wintering ground for about 30 species of migratory birds like the little curlew that breed during the northern summer in Siberia, China and Japan.
Agricultural and forestry production was projected to drop by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand, the report said. New Zealand's higher altitude regions however could benefit initially from a longer growing season and less frost.
The IPCC report is the product of not only scientific input but also approval by 130 governments. dpa pr cc
EDITORIAL: Water may be cause of future wars
Source: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C04%5C11%5Cstory_11-4-2007_pg3_1
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri has clarified that his earlier statement about water being a possible cause of war between states in South Asia was misunderstood; in fact, he had said that the possibility of war over waters was minimised by discussions under SAARC. He said the obligation of managing the melting glaciers and common sources of water has compelled Pakistan, India and other states of the region to cooperate.
While elsewhere in the world various states have had to contend with water disputes in the absence of water treaties among them, the Indo-Pak Waters Treaty has ensured that consultation and arbitration instead of war is the right way of dealing with the problem. That is why SAARC is positioned to actually extend the Indo-Pak model of water treaties among its member states. The SAARC summit in fact established that “the situation was improving in this part of the world” and that “leaders of countries of the region have reached a consensus that no single country can overcome problems emanating from regional causes”.
Pakistan and India are linked with each other through the many rivers that flow between them from mountains in the disputed valley of Kashmir. Likewise, Nepal and India are linked through a disputed storage of water system inside Nepal affected by the water policies of the lower riparian India. India controls 50 rivers flowing to Bangladesh and still has to reach some kind of agreement over them; and there are problems with the flows going to Bangladesh from India’s Farraka Dam. Only cooperation inside SAARC can resolve these issues amicably.
All countries of the region, according to Mr Kasuri, are deficient in water resources and are faced with a bleak future unless they act as one region and manage the water-sheds of the region collectively. The glaciers on the northern mountains are melting fast and can have a decisive impact on the countries of the region while no one country can tackle the challenge single-handedly. He said: “There is no future for these countries without cooperation”. Therefore the leaders of SAARC have agreed to face natural calamities like floods, earthquakes, famine, and locust attacks through collective efforts.
While the minister was upbeat, one can hardly imagine how these regional states will overcome their lack of imagination and start trusting each other for collective action.
The world faces a dark future as far as water is concerned. By 2025, more than two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible to mobilise the water resources needed to meet the needs of agriculture, industry and households. That is one-third of the world’s population.
In northern China, rivers now run dry in their lower reaches for much of the year. In parts of India, groundwater levels are falling so rapidly that 10 to 20 percent of agricultural production is under threat. From the Aral Sea in Central Asia to Lake Chad in sub-Saharan Africa, the lakes are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. The disputes erupting within countries are one consequence of increasing scarcity. But water is the ultimate “fugitive resource”. Forty percent of the world’s population lives in territories that share water across international frontiers. That is nature’s interdependence. But are the states willing to be interdependent?
So far, no. The Tigris and Euphrates river systems figured prominently at the recently observed World Water Week. The two rivers dictate the “hydrological interdependence” that is actually absent. In Turkey, the two rivers are seen as an underexploited source of power and irrigation. But viewed from Syria and Iraq, the Turkish dams are a threat to their populations. Unfortunately, the three states look at any discussion over water as a zero-sum game. Every drop of water going to Turkish farmer appears as a loss to the Syrian farmer.
Unfortunately, big river diversions are planned in China and India without consulting the down-river states. Bangladesh has warned that any diversion of the Ganges to meet the needs of India’s cities could undermine the livelihood of millions of vulnerable farmers in Bangladesh. If there is no war, there is starvation and death. If South Asia begins to die because of lack of cooperation, it will be a failure of SAARC simply because it is moving slower than the Himalayan glaciers are melting under climatic change. *
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri has clarified that his earlier statement about water being a possible cause of war between states in South Asia was misunderstood; in fact, he had said that the possibility of war over waters was minimised by discussions under SAARC. He said the obligation of managing the melting glaciers and common sources of water has compelled Pakistan, India and other states of the region to cooperate.
While elsewhere in the world various states have had to contend with water disputes in the absence of water treaties among them, the Indo-Pak Waters Treaty has ensured that consultation and arbitration instead of war is the right way of dealing with the problem. That is why SAARC is positioned to actually extend the Indo-Pak model of water treaties among its member states. The SAARC summit in fact established that “the situation was improving in this part of the world” and that “leaders of countries of the region have reached a consensus that no single country can overcome problems emanating from regional causes”.
Pakistan and India are linked with each other through the many rivers that flow between them from mountains in the disputed valley of Kashmir. Likewise, Nepal and India are linked through a disputed storage of water system inside Nepal affected by the water policies of the lower riparian India. India controls 50 rivers flowing to Bangladesh and still has to reach some kind of agreement over them; and there are problems with the flows going to Bangladesh from India’s Farraka Dam. Only cooperation inside SAARC can resolve these issues amicably.
All countries of the region, according to Mr Kasuri, are deficient in water resources and are faced with a bleak future unless they act as one region and manage the water-sheds of the region collectively. The glaciers on the northern mountains are melting fast and can have a decisive impact on the countries of the region while no one country can tackle the challenge single-handedly. He said: “There is no future for these countries without cooperation”. Therefore the leaders of SAARC have agreed to face natural calamities like floods, earthquakes, famine, and locust attacks through collective efforts.
While the minister was upbeat, one can hardly imagine how these regional states will overcome their lack of imagination and start trusting each other for collective action.
The world faces a dark future as far as water is concerned. By 2025, more than two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible to mobilise the water resources needed to meet the needs of agriculture, industry and households. That is one-third of the world’s population.
In northern China, rivers now run dry in their lower reaches for much of the year. In parts of India, groundwater levels are falling so rapidly that 10 to 20 percent of agricultural production is under threat. From the Aral Sea in Central Asia to Lake Chad in sub-Saharan Africa, the lakes are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. The disputes erupting within countries are one consequence of increasing scarcity. But water is the ultimate “fugitive resource”. Forty percent of the world’s population lives in territories that share water across international frontiers. That is nature’s interdependence. But are the states willing to be interdependent?
So far, no. The Tigris and Euphrates river systems figured prominently at the recently observed World Water Week. The two rivers dictate the “hydrological interdependence” that is actually absent. In Turkey, the two rivers are seen as an underexploited source of power and irrigation. But viewed from Syria and Iraq, the Turkish dams are a threat to their populations. Unfortunately, the three states look at any discussion over water as a zero-sum game. Every drop of water going to Turkish farmer appears as a loss to the Syrian farmer.
Unfortunately, big river diversions are planned in China and India without consulting the down-river states. Bangladesh has warned that any diversion of the Ganges to meet the needs of India’s cities could undermine the livelihood of millions of vulnerable farmers in Bangladesh. If there is no war, there is starvation and death. If South Asia begins to die because of lack of cooperation, it will be a failure of SAARC simply because it is moving slower than the Himalayan glaciers are melting under climatic change. *
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